The Ryder Cup has always been a popular event in terms of the sports betting attention that it receives. The tournament historically sees a high volume of sports betting money come in on either team to win the trophy on Sunday. The recent trends have shown that it might actually make a lot more sense to bet against the favorite when this tournament rolls around every year. Here is a look at why it makes sense to bet the underdogs at the Ryder Cup
Over the period of a decade from 2002 through 2012, the underdogs emerged victories a total of 60% of the time. Anybody that had their money on the underdogs in those wins would have netted a significant profit since they were all paying out at plus-money. The 2014 version of the tournament saw that trend continue with Paul McGinley’s European side besting Tom Watson’s side from the United States. The 2016 edition is right around the corner and if the previous results are any indication then the numbers support the idea of the underdog side scoring another victory.
Whether it has to do with the pressure of delivering as favorites or the misperception that factors such as location and talent will outweigh performance, the numbers have shown that the favorites haven’t fared well. That was certainly the case back in 2008 when the United States delivered a memorable victory as the underdogs heading in to the tournament. Two years later in 2010 the Europeans lived up to their billing as pre-tournament favorites but even then they only managed a narrow one-point victory on the Monday after weather wreaked havoc on the course art Celtic Manor. The 2012 version at Medinah opened with Europe as the tournament favorites for the fourth Ryder Cup in a row and while they came out with the victory it had a lot to do with the play of Ian Poulter, who pretty much carried them to the victory. After three straight victories by the European side, it only makes sense that they would be the favorite heading in to this year’s Ryder Cup. However, at this point it is actually the United States that is listed as the outright betting favorite to win. That could create an interesting dynamic heading in to the tournament at the Hazeltine National Golf Club in Minnesota, as well as another chance to back the underdog in a favorable situation.
The numbers support the idea that betting the underdog makes a lot of sense when it comes to the Ryder Cup event and it is certainly a convincing argument. There is a clear misperception that certain factors weigh more in to the result than they actually do and it’s good to be aware of that. The United States will be the favorite to win this year’s Ryder Cup with the event heading back on to American soil but it might be a good idea to consider fading the home side, as the numbers support the notion that it makes sense to back the underdogs at this event.