In baseball betting, similar to all sports betting, some betting systems are more successful than others. With various handicapping systems, bettors are able to pick and choose in order to maximize their chances of winning and minimize their chances of losing. Here are six baseball betting systems that you should be take note of.
The basic system is exactly what the name implies – betting on the team that you believe will win. Selecting a team to bet on relies on the team’s forecasted winning percentage being higher than .470. In order to determine a win probability for a team, bettors may use information from online sources that provide the chances of winning for each team depending on the matchup. However, bettors must be cautious to only bet on games with value. In order to determine if value is present, the bettor must compare his forecasted win percentage of a team to the implied win percentage of a team from the payouts from sportsbooks. If the bettor’s forecasted win percentage for the Yankees is .500 and the corresponding implied win percentage is .450 (+122 line), value exists. On the other hand and assuming the same forecasted win percentage, if the Yankees’ implied win percentage is .600 (-150 line), there is no value present.
For individuals with limited time to analyze games, the shorthand approach provides a quick and simple betting system. To use the shorthand approach, a bettor will use a team’s average runs scored and runs allowed per game and adjust these figures for each game separating the two teams (e.g. awarding 0.25 points for each game that the team with the better record is up on the team with the worse record).
Over/Under Teams Runs Betting
Bettors are able to wager on a specific team’s over/under for total runs scored in a game. For this betting system, bettors are encouraged to do their own research on the matchups and look for key indicators that will likely determine whether a game is more prone to going over or under. Key indicators will revolve around the strength of the opposing team’s starting pitcher – earned run average (ERA), walks hits per inning pitched (WHIP), fielding independent pitching (FIP), and average slash line of opponents – as well as the team’s quality of offense.
The comparing stats betting system is used after choosing the teams that you’d like to bet on. After selecting these teams, it is important to scrutinize the key statistics of the teams against their opponents. For example, an analysis might look something like this:
“The New York Yankees have been mashing right-handed pitchers this season and they are about to face a weak offensive team in the Tampa Bay Rays and a righty who has struggled in his past five starts, recording no quality starts. Additionally, the Yankees’ ace is on the mound.”
From this analysis, it seems that the Yankees will cruise to an easy win in this game and bettors might even consider taking the Yankees on the run line, which takes us to our next betting system.
Run Line System
When using a run line system, the bettor analyzes each game and tries to get a sense of which team will win along with the possible margin of victory. For matchups with a large potential final score discrepancy between the teams, a bettor might decide to place a wager on the run line instead of simply the moneyline. When betting on a team to win on the run line, this means that the team must win the game by two runs or more in order for the bettor to also win. By requiring a team to win by two runs or more, the potential payout increases due to the additional risk involved. In an ace vs. back-end rotation matchup, it might pay to take the ace’s team on the run line. However, in an ace vs. ace matchup, it would be wise to stay away from the run line since the game could be easily decided by one run.
Series betting is a very popular betting system. A series represents a consecutive string of games that two teams play against each other and usually consist of three or four games though two-game series also occur. In series betting, a bettor selects the team that he believes will win the series – winning a majority of the games in the series (e.g. winning three out of four games or winning two out of three games). With this approach, the bettor would place one unit for his selected team to win the first game and if that team happens to lose the first game, bet two units on the team to win the second game and if that team ends up losing the second game, bet four units on the team to win the third game.