When it comes to betting on the MLB, the typical focus is on the starting pitching matchups. In this article, we’ll look at some key statistics to look at when betting on baseball, along with a few other peripheral statistics that should be accounted for as well.
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)
Many people tend to refer to ERA when assessing a starting pitcher. However, FIP provides a better indicator of how a starting pitcher will likely perform since FIP measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league average results on balls in play. Additionally, FIP also strips the role of a team’s defense, luck, and sequencing, making it a more stable indicator of how a pitcher should perform rather than how he’s actually performed in the past.
Walks And Hits Per Inning Pitched (WHIP)
WHIP measures the number of baserunners a pitcher has allowed per inning pitched. The ability to limit the number of baserunners is extremely important when assessing the quality of a starting pitcher. If a pitcher is able to limit baserunners, it becomes significantly tougher for the opposing team to put runs on the board.
Walks To Strikeouts Ratio (BB:K)
The BB:K ratio indicates how many batters a pitcher walks for every strikeout he records. Essentially, the lower the number of walks and the higher the number of strikeouts, the better the pitcher in terms of being able to control his pitches and also limit the number of balls put in play via strikeouts.
Strikeouts Per Nine Innings Rate (K/9)
A pitcher’s K/9 rate provides an idea of how many batters a pitcher strikes out for every nine innings. A pitcher with a high K/9 rate has the ability to get outs without allowing balls being put in play. This is essential to a pitcher’s success since batted balls have a good chance of sneaking by the defense and allows movement on the base paths. If a pitcher is able to strike out a large majority of batters faced, he’ll be able to limit lucky bounces and keep baserunners at bay.
Home Runs Per Nine Innings Rate (HR/9)
A pitcher’s HR/9 rate shows how many home runs a pitcher has given up over the course of nine innings. Some starting pitchers may only have given up a handful of home runs but this must be viewed in the context of how many innings he has pitched. Since home runs automatically allow at least one run to score, it’s key that pitchers are able to limit the number of home runs they allow.
Average Run Support
No matter how good a starting pitcher is, he must have at least some run support in order to be able to win games. Every year, there are pitchers who consistently receive five or more runs on a regular basis and pitchers who repeatedly fail to get any run support. Essentially, average run support refers to the number of offensive runs scored per start for a specific starting pitcher.
Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP)
A pitcher’s BABIP is an advanced statistic that shows how lucky or unlucky a pitcher has been. Pitchers typically do not have much control over a ball that’s put in play, unless it’s a home run. The average BABIP of a pitcher is .300 – if you find a starting pitcher who has a BABIP under .300, this figure will eventually make its way back to the mean.