The saying goes, if you don’t learn from your mistakes, you’re bound to repeat them. The same wisdom applies for sports betting. Mistakes can be viewed in a negative light or have a positive spin put around them. Mistakes are bound to happen in everyone’s lives but how one views and learns from these mistakes matter greatly. Important lessons can always be learned from mistakes and the same mindset should be applied to sports betting. Here are some MLB betting mistakes to avoid.
Playing Too Many Favourites
Most amateur sports bettors start out by betting extremely often on favourites. Rather than trying to get an idea of the likelihood that the favourite will end up winning, amateurs simply bet on the favourite because they believe the favourite will win. By often or always betting on favourites, you’d need an absurdly high winning percentage on your bets just to break even. However, how often do teams finish off the regular season with a .650+ winning percentage?
Avoid Fading Streaks
Too many times, when a bad team is on a winning streak, amateur bettors immediately fade that team the next time they play. However, this type of strategy should be avoided. Essentially, baseball boils down to a game of streaks – good teams go on more winning streaks than bad teams, and vice-versa. Even bad teams are bound to go on a couple of winning streaks and choosing to fade these teams at the wrong time could end up costing you a lot of money.
Overvaluing Starting Pitchers
While it is true that the lines of MLB games are heavily dependent on the starting pitcher, it is equally important to keep in mind that starting pitchers, especially in today’s game, rarely go the distance (pitch the full nine innings). A team’s bullpen will likely see a couple of innings, which would have nothing to do with the starting pitcher. Placing too much emphasis on a team’s starting pitcher may provide you with a false direction for where the game will likely be headed towards.
Failing To Completely Analyze Games
Although a team may be on a winning streak, solely focusing on this fact will provide you with a poor outlook on the game. What if the team currently on the winning streak has just lost two of its best hitters to injury? What if the team has just played its final series at home and will be embarking on a long and gruesome road trip? It is not enough to simply look at one factor and make a decision on how a game will likely turn out.
Only Betting On High Scoring Teams
Another unsound strategy is only betting on high scoring teams. However, it is important to understand why certain teams score more runs than others. Is it because they genuinely have a stacked lineup, from one through nine? Or is it because they have an extremely hitter-friendly home ballpark and have also played a majority of their games in away ballparks that favour hitters over pitchers? Teams that score a lot of runs also receive overwhelming support from the public, which tends to drive up the line on these teams and leave value on the opposite side.
Ignoring Home-Away Splits
Although this fact holds less for baseball than it does for professional sports such basketball and football, there are still teams in the MLB that have heavily contrasting home-away splits. If you’re able to find a two-faced team, there will likely be value in taking them at the right time. Additionally, it is also important to analyze why some teams tend to perform a lot better at home than on the road, and vice-versa.