The majority of fans that bet on baseball will look to pick winners and losers either on the moneyline or on the run line. However, one of the most profitable areas of betting on baseball that get overlooked is betting on totals. The best baseball handicappers in the world rely heavily on the run totals when it comes to their betting approach. Here is a look at the best strategies for betting baseball totals.
The Numbers War
The Moneyball system changed the way that a lot of people look at baseball. One effect of that system is that teams became a lot more focused in terms of buying runs with their player purchases and team strategies. Statistics have been at the very core of baseball for some time and the numbers show how things have changed. Teams have countered the buying of runs, bases and hits by looking at strikes and other defensive stats and the result has been a numbers war.
Runs Over/Under Betting
The great thing for gamblers is that these numbers recorded can be used to help predict their performance. Identifying teams ot bet on in the over/under market normally depends on a comparison of team batting averages and earned run averages, which we know are an accurate representation of their hitting and scoring numbers. By measuring these numbers we can usually get a good idea of what to expect from different teams in terms of their betting totals.
Once you have identified teams that are worth betting on to score a lot of runs or limit the number of runs scored you can determine the best approach to betting on their games. For example, if a high scoring team also has poor pitching and poor defense then they are more likely to be involved in a higher scoring game since they are likely to score more runs and give up more runs than other teams. The opposite is true for the teams that don’t score a lot of runs but have solid pitching and defense. By comparing team statistics against one another in specific matchups you could get a good idea of what to expect in terms of the totals for their games.
While the majority of casual bettors focus on the moneyline and the run line, it’s important to consider the run lines and incorporating over and under bets in to your baseball betting portfolio. By comparing and contrasting statistics in specific matchups, you will often get a good idea of what to expect in that game. The more time and research you put in to tracking these numbers the more accurate you will likely become. Most casual bettors will settle for picking winners and losers. If you can get in to a rhythm and figure out the best approach to handicapping run lines you will be in that much better of a position when it comes to betting on baseball throughout the summer months.