With 162 games on the MLB regular season schedule there is a massive span of games to bet on throughout the course of the year. However, with so many games on the schedule every single day, it can be easy to get caught up with the individual matchups. Many sportsbooks offer betting lines on series before they begin, which is yet another option you might want to consider. Here is a look at the best strategy for picking MLB series winners.
Analyze Pitching Matchups
The projected starting pitchers are listed prior to the start of every series. While injuries, weather and team decisions could lead to lineup changes, the projected starting pitchers usually end up taking the mound for their scheduled starts. Since the starters factor so heavily in to the outcome of baseball games, it’s important to take a close look at the pitching matchups. Crunch the numbers, look at the matchups and strongly consider which team has the better starters when betting on an MLB series.
Consider Home/Road Splits
How much of an advantage do baseball teams have at home? The numbers indicate that it is significant. Even the worst teams in baseball tend to produce at least a relatively mediocre record at home. The same cannot be said about the performance of teams on the road. Home/Road splits are easy to find online and they can be a very valuable resource when evaluating a matchup between two sides. Make sure you do the necessary homework and factor home/road splits in to your decision on which team to back in a given series.
Understand Team Histories
It’s also very valuable to know the histories of the two teams that play in a series. While it’s easy to evaluate if one team is better than the other based on record, a closer look at the history between the two teams could reveal important information about which side you should back. A team with the best record in baseball could historically struggle playing in the ballpark of a relatively mediocre opponent. If you are able to find this type of situation you could identify an example of when it makes sense to bet on an underdog team in a historically favorable spot.
Find Potential Letdowns
It is also worth finding potential letdown spots when betting on baseball series. A classic letdown spot in baseball is when a team plays one day after playing on Sunday Night Baseball. If a club plays late in to the night on Sunday and then needs to fly to another destination for a game on Monday it could result in a classic letdown situation. This is especially true when their opponent is well rested and didn’t have to travel. Keep an eye out for nuances in the schedule and other potential letdown indicators heading in to MLB series.
Understand Bullpen Usage
One final element to consider is the potential of the two bullpens heading in to a series. If you can find a team with a fresh bullpen facing an opponent that has a fatigued group of relievers then you could have a quality edge favoring one team over the other in the series. Bullpens have an underrated impact on the outcome of MLB series. Pay attention to the details and keep an eye out for situations where a specific bullpen could provide a more significant edge over the other in a given matchup.