The majority of casual sports bettors tend to bet on the favorites in any given sport. After all, a team is only listed as a favorite if they are projected to win. However, when it comes to baseball it can be a lot more profitable to bet on underdogs. The key is to find value. Here is a look at the keys to betting on underdogs in baseball.
It might surprise you to look back at the results posted by MLB underdogs in recent years. Over the last five regular seasons, MLB favorites have posted a 7,430-5-543 record, which translates to a 57.3% success rate. Over the same span, underdogs have posted a 4,713-6,600 record, which translates to a 41.7% success rate. While the favorites still win more than they lose, the disparity isn’t as great as you might have thought. The fact that MLB underdogs have won nearly 42% of their games over the last five years is statistical proof that there is an opportunity to profit from their overall success.
Attack Early In The Season
The early months of the MLB season are the best for betting on MLB underdogs. The sportsbooks are still adjusting to the news rosters so they night not have a handle on what to expect. Over the last 10 years, April underdogs have posted a record of 1,521-1,894, which translates to a 44.5% success rate. While that might not seem outstanding at first glance, those numbers are much better than what we have seen in other sports. By picking your spots and betting on underdogs early in the year, you can really boost your bottom line and profit on MLB underdogs.
Target The Road Underdogs Early
Another key number to consider is the record posted by road underdogs in the month of April and May. The road dogs have posted a 175-175 record in the first two months of the year over the last five seasons, which is a ridiculous 50% success rate. Considering the average price of a road underdog early in the year, these might be the most profitable winners if you can accurately predict them out of the gate.
Home Underdogs Following Long Trips
The length of the MLB season means that there will always be plenty of opportunities to target underdog plays. It also means there will be long road trips. Those road trips can take a toll on teams and that could be one reason why they tend to perform well in their first game back home. Over the last five seasons, home underdogs coming off seven-game road trips posted a 278-298 record straight up. Meanwhile, underdog home teams coming off a road trip that lasted 10 games posted a 79-86 record. These are excellent totals for teams that would have been available at favorable odds based on their underdog status.
Underdogs Coming Off Big Wins
Another situation that you want to consider when betting on underdogs is when they are coming off a high scoring offensive performance. If the team is listed as the underdog one night after scoring 10 runs or more, then it makes sense to bet on them. Teams in that situation have posted a 241-320 record over the last five seasons, which translates to a 43.7% success rate. Betting on baseball can be a challenge if you are not paying close enough attention. However, if you focus on the smart underdog plays that are available you could really boost your win totals and build up your profit margins over the course of the summer.