The over is always a popular bet whether it comes to game totals or regular season win totals. However, oddsmakers are well aware of this and as a result, may deliberately try to entice casual bettors in taking the over when oddsmakers feel that the correct move would be the under. In a way, the over bet is more appealing due to the fact that when someone takes the over, whether it be on a game total or regular season wins, the individual does not have to wait until the end of the game or the regular season to cash in on his bet. At times, the game total is already over just barely at the end of the third quarter or two-thirds of the way through the regular season. However, oddsmakers may purposely set the totals a bit lower than usual in order to draw bettors into taking the over. Here are some tips when betting the over for NBA regular season win totals.
Prior Season’s Performance
For many teams, the regular season wins totals will be set based on the team’s performance from last season – it is used as a benchmark for the upcoming season. The exception would be if the team has either lost or gained a player(s) who is a huge difference maker. When using a team’s total wins from the prior season as a benchmark, it is important to take note of any significant changes to the makeup of the team or any coaching changes. If the team brings in a few players who will play meaningful minutes and make an impact or if the team has a stronger coaching staff, these factors could indicate that the team’s regular season win totals will likely go over. Furthermore, it is also important to make note of whether the team had any prolonged periods of injuries to their players or if the team was relatively healthy since these factors may not remain consistent from season to season. If the team had a lot of injuries and still performed decently well, they will likely hit the over.
Keeping Core Players Intact
By keeping a team’s core players intact for another season, this allows these players to further gel with each other and complement each other’s playing styles. With another year of experience playing with each other under their belts, players will only feel more comfortable playing with each other and make larger strides. As a result, teams that are able to keep their core intact from the prior season usually tend to exceed their regular season win totals. As players become more and more familiar with each other through accumulated minutes played with one another, the game becomes more effortless and team chemistry develops even further.
If a team has consistently been underperforming in past seasons but has not had a major shakeup of the team’s personnel or players, the team may feel more inclined and motivated to have a better performance the following year. Pressures or critical remarks from the media or fan base may promote an added layer of motivation in a good way for the players to place more emphasis on winning. As a result, players will be less likely to treat each regular season game as if it were just a routine but rather, treat each game as if they have something to prove to critics.