While casual bettors tend to flock towards the under for game totals and regular season win totals, sharp bettors will be more skeptical of betting the over and instead, carefully analyze the value in betting on the under. Although an individual must wait until the game or regular season finishes to confirm that they have won their bet, game totals and regular season win totals may end significantly on the under side if factors are properly accounted for and analyzed meticulously. While betting on the under does not usually constitute as a popular side to bet on, one may be able to derive immense value from this option. Here are some things to look for when betting the under for NBA regular season win totals.
Loss Of A Superstar
While this is quite obvious, the effects of losing a superstar player may be understated. Some individuals may perceive that just because a team has lost its superstar player, they may still be able to perform at a decent level. However, when a major superstar leaves a team, he may leave take many facets of the game that the team and its players previously took for granted. These include factors such as the superstar’s ability to make plays out of seemingly nothing, created his own shot when the chances of getting a shot off are next to impossible, attracting a large fan base to support and boost the team’s adrenaline and morale in home games, and provide a persona of strength rather than one of fear. Many of these factors are intangible and tend to result in substantial negative effects on the team. While oddsmakers will likely reflect the departure of a superstar player, the line adjustment may not be enough to warrant this devastating ripple effect.
Signing A Superstar
Whenever a team signs a superstar in the offseason, the team’s fan base and casual bettors often become overhyped about the team’s prospects for the upcoming season. However, this should be viewed with a hint of caution. In the past, many teams have signed on big name superstars only for the team to fail to exceed expectations during the regular season. A lot of this is due to the difficultly of acclimating to playing in a new city, new players, and new coaches. Since a superstar player will likely demand to have the ball in his hands for a significant portion of the time that he is on the floor, other players may initially find it harder than expected to play with a superstar. This may cost the team a few more wins than projected during the early stages of the regular season, which could make all the difference when trying to finish under the team’s regular season win total.
Number Of Close Games
Typically in the NBA, a close game is decided by three points or less, which equates to one full possession. Sometimes, a team’s record may be overblown due to the fact that the team has compiled a much better record than to be expected in close games. When a game comes down to the way the ball bounces or just a single shot, luck tends to play a much bigger role in the outcome of these games. As a result, if a team is more prone to playing in close games, they may eventually regress back to the mean, with the mean being that a team should split their close games 50/50. If a team has a particularly poor year when it comes to finishing off close games, you can bet that their win total will fall under the line set by oddsmakers.