A poorly-kept secret is the fact that the public prefers betting on the over for game totals, especially on teams capable of putting up a lot of points on the board. Additionally, this sentiment is felt even stronger after a team has racked up points on the scoreboard in its previous game. In this article, we’ll take a look at whether teams that have scored a lot of points in their previous game will also be more likely to hit the over on game totals on their next game. Contrary to this, perhaps oddsmakers tend to inflate the game totals, making the under a much better bet option.
Performance After Scoring 50 Points Or More
We’ve taken a look at games from past years where teams have scored 50 points or more in their previous game and their performance for their next game. While your intuition may tell you that you should look to bet on the over, doing this would actually result in a .459 winning percentage (428-505-25). As a result, it seems that the more prudent bet option would be to go with the under. When taking a look at how these teams perform on the moneyline in their next game, they’ve posted a solid .679 winning percentage (715-338). Also, the record of these teams against the spread was 535-591-18 (.521 winning percentage). It’s probably not surprising for these teams to have a good record on the moneyline after coming off a 50 or more point performance in their previous game due to the fact that there’s not a lot of bad teams that are capable of putting up 50 or more points on the board.
From our analysis above, it was obvious that the under tended to hold true more often than the over. When we dug deeper, we noticed that the under became a significantly better bet when a team was traveling after scoring 50 or more points in their previous game at home – a .568 winning percentage to be exact. Additionally, the trend here was that there was a stronger possibility of the game total resulting in under whenever a team was traveling from a home game to a game on the road, or vice-versa. However, there was not a significant enough edge to bet on the under for teams who were either staying at home for their next game or staying on the road for their next game.
Coming Off A Loss
In this final section, we took a look at teams who put up 50 or more points in their previous game but ended up losing the game to see whether the over or under betting option for the game total would be more favorable. Once again, similar to the previous section, the trend towards the under was more noticeable whenever teams were required to change venues (e.g., playing at home then on the road, and vice-versa).
From our analysis, it seems that oddsmakers do in fact inflate the game totals for teams who are coming off a 50 point or more performance in their previous game. Because of this, it makes sense that the under may indeed make for a more strategic bet as opposed to blindly taking the under. These trends are important to take note of as sometimes, things that seem to be the most obvious may indeed have a hidden twist.