NFL Betting: Learning The Ropes Of Advanced Teaser Strategy

A teaser bet is one of the easiest bets to calculate value and subsequently sniff out +EV (1:1 payout) wagering opportunities. A teaser is defined as a parlay bet using altered point spreads. For example, if you wanted to parlay Patriots/Falcons over 45 points, Panthers -5.0, and Seahawks +5.0 using a 3-team 6-point teaser, you will end up with a parlay consisting of these three individual wagers: Patriots/Falcons over 39 points, Panthers +1.0, and Seahawks +11.0. Teasers can often make for a very fun type of wagering and the following article will discuss some advanced NFL teaser strategies.

Basic Teaser Strategy

From history data, the most common margins of victory in the NFL are by three and seven points. As a result, teasers that crossed the three and seven margins are the best teaser bets, in terms of the likelihood of winning. This strategy implies that for underdogs, when dealing with a six-point teaser, the tease for underdogs at +1.5 to +2.5 should end up being +7.5 to +8.5; for favourites, the tease at -7.5 to
-8.5 should be to -1.5 to -2.5. Based on past historical data, the most common margins of victory, in order from most common is by 3, 7, 10, 4, 6, 14, 2, 21, 17, 1, 8, and 5 points. Additionally, since the start of the 2006 season, one-fourth or 25% of games have been decided by exactly three or exactly seven points. Furthermore, 38% of games have been decided by a margin of victory between three and seven points. As a result, it is evident that teasers involving these particular spreads at the best possible odds will likely result in profits over the long-run.

Understanding Teaser Odds

Due to the fact that teasers used fixed payouts, it is often difficult for the casual sports bettor to figure out the odds for individual teams. For example, a three-team six-point teaser that pays +180 or 2.80 is actually the same parlay bet if all three individual teams were priced at -244 or 1.41. In this case, the sportsbook is allowing the bettor to purchase six points on the spreads or game totals and instead of paying out -105 to -110 for point spreads or game totals that are not teased, the sportsbook is instead offering -244 for a six-point tease, which makes winning the point spread or game totals much easier. For a +180 or 2.80 bet, the required win rate in order to break even is 35.71% (calculated as 1 / 2.80). Mathematically speaking, three to five team teasers offer the best odds and considering there may be a limited number of games and teaser opportunities on a daily basis, it makes the most sense to stick within this range when dealing with teasers.

To Tease Or Not To Tease

Sometimes, a bettor may be contemplating between whether to bet on the point spread straight up or to tease. If the point spread that you want to bet on is at -7.5, there are two options that you are thinking of – bet the spread at -7.5 or tease is by six points. If you decide to tease the point spread and if your team wins the game by two to seven points, you would win the teaser whereas you would have lost if you had bet on the point spread straight up. From an accurate push chart found on the web, in the -4.0 to -9.0 favourites column, these teams landed within the related margins of victory as follows: seven points – 6.0%; six points – 3.1%; five points – 2.2%; four points – 2.6%; three points – 9.7%; two points – 2.1%. Summing these percentages gives us 25.7%, which represents the improvement in a team’s win probability. Since you are considering betting on the team at -7.5 straight up, you are likely to imply the team’s probability of covering against the spread at greater than 50%. To play it safe, I will take the lower end of the spectrum at 50% and add 25.7% to this percentage, resulting in new win probability of 75.7% based on the teaser advantage.

Back to top button