When betting on the over/under totals for NFL games, the end result of some games may end up being way under the game totals, which may leave you wondering why this happened the way it did. If you had initially picked the game to go under, you may have a hindsight bias that you “knew” that the game would go under based on factors that you analyzed. On the other hand, if you had initially picked the game go over, you may feel baffled that the end result was drastically different than what you had predicted. While the element of luck will always be present, to some extent, when betting on over/under game totals, here are some key indicators for an NFL game to go under.
NFL games are more likely to go under when both teams have endured a rough travel schedule on the road and are nearing the end of this brutal stretch. Travelling can often wear out a team, especially over the course of a long season. For these athletes, sitting on chartered flights can be quite uncomfortable due to their large statures as well as sleeping in hotel beds made for regular Joes. For the away team in the matchup, they may be nearing the end of a tiring road trip, with the stress of travelling from state to state wearing down their minds and bodies. For the home team in the matchup, they may have also had a long trip, finally culminating in coming back home for a game when most of the team is already exhausted. As a result of this factor, players may tend to be less focused and sharp, which may lead to not converting third downs that the team would normally make or being on the end of costly turnovers – further pushing down the game total.
The offensive and defensive styles of both teams in a matchup matters a great deal when betting on the over/under game totals. If a team has a strong running game and is facing another team with a stellar rush defense, the offensive team may find itself struggling to advance the ball with its running game due to the ability of the opposing team to generate stops. This could have an effect of low-scoring games. On the other hand, if a team that loves to throw the football is facing another team with an impeccable ability to stop the throwing game of another team, the offensive team will again fail to move the ball up the field or convert their third downs. On the flip side, this also applies to teams with a solid particular offensive style of play facing another team with a defense that tends to find themselves struggling against this offensive style. As a result of this, the game totals could be significantly less than expected, especially when both teams find themselves struggling to score.
Similar to baseball, weather may play a key factor in affecting the over/under game totals. When the weather is gruellingly hot, players tend to get tired out much faster, resulting in sprints that may not end up being at the regular speeds that players are accustomed to. If the weather is unbearably cold, players tend to tighten up, with their hands numbing and not being able to feel the football as they would like. Additionally, if rain or snow comes down during the game, a team’s offensive game may be slowed down due to slipping on the grass or players being unable to properly secure the football due to the wetness. As a result, the game becomes more and more sloppy, usually in the form of being unable to generate scoring.