Anybody that has ever looked online for help from sports betting services has seen the claims from the betting tipsters that promise big profits and the chance to hit big on almost a daily basis. However, for as alluring as the idea of winning large amounts of money is it’s important to remain grounded and understand just how good the handicapping services offered by those betting tipsters are. Here are the four keys to evaluating handicapping services.
Evaluating The Context Of The Numbers
While the betting tipsters promote big profits and steady success rates it is important to understand what they are selling and whether or not there is any legitimacy behind their numbers. The first step is to evaluate the context of their numbers and understand exactly what they are promoting. How many more wins have they recorded than losses? How much time has passed since they started calculating their record? Are they focused on betting favorites or are they giving valuable insight in to strong underdog plays? In order to understand the handicapping service you absolutely must understand the numbers being promoted.
Evaluating The Sports Betting Record Over Time
T-distribution is a term used to evaluate a tipster’s record over time. The t-distribution is very similar to the bell-shaped normal distribution and for numbers of wagers above about 30, is to all intents and purposes the same thing. The t-test takes a closer look at the likelihood that a profit from a series of wagers could have happened by chance. The smaller the likelihood the more profitable it is that something else, like the bettor’s skill, is explaining their profitability. The t-test simply compared the bettor’s observed return to a theoretical expectation defined by the market that they are wagering in. The longer the history of the tipster the more likely it is that something other than chance is at work. For example, if a tipster owns a 65-percent success rate over two years than that should obviously be more impressive than a 65-percent success rate over two months.
Evaluating Long Versus Short Odds
A return of 120% from 100 wagers at sports betting odds of 10.00 or longer is most likely the consequence of sheer luck. However, the same returns from betting odds-on prices is an indication of skill. The betting odds of the wagers being made should factor heavily in to the perception of the betting tipster. For example, if the bettor makes 10 bets on favorites of -200 or greater then they need to hit on at least seven of those 10 wagers in order to make a profit. However, if they make 10 bets on favorites of +200 or greater then they only need to hit on four of those wagers to guarantee a profit. The odds have a lot to do with the numbers when it comes to evaluating success rate and potential profit so it’s important to keep that in mind when evaluating the numbers promoted by a handicapping service.
The final important evaluation to make is on the chance that the handicapping service will continue to hit at the rate they are promoting. The average odds at which someone bets has a big influence on whether their profitability is the result of luck or skill and it’s important to understand the numbers and make the comparison to a 50-percent success rate, which is what you could expect with something as simple as flipping a coin. If the bettor was to show the same return betting odds-on prices then it is far more likely that the profit they made has come from skill. History and a comparison of long versus short odds are important factors but you must also understand what their record is in comparison to chance.