In addition to sports betting, countless other fields make use of data to drive decisions. When there is an adequate amount of data, this information can be used to paint a picture of how things will likely shape out in the future. However, where it becomes tricky is when a lack of data exists. When this is the case, making use of quantitative analysis to drive decisions is no longer an option. Instead, one must rely on qualitative analysis given the limited data and information available. Here are four tips to making sports betting predictions without data.
Challenge Pre-Existing Notions
If you strongly believe that one team will win over another, instead of thinking of all of the compelling reasons why your team will win, you should take another approach instead. While it may be obvious why one team will win over another, you should challenge your viewpoint and come up with reasons why your team might lose. When it comes to sports betting, it often pays off to sustain a healthy dose of paranoia and skepticism since huge favourites are always prone to upsets, no matter how much of a lock to win they appear to be. Challenging your pre-existing notions may end up providing you with multiple different viewpoints that you may not have thought of.
Balance New Information
When new evidence or information is presented, it is extremely important to maintain a balance of overreacting and underreacting. Part of the ability to balance overreactions and underreactions is derived from experience and knowing how to weigh the value of the source of evidence and information. Sometimes, a new piece of information may simply serve as “noise” but may be taken into account more heavily than warranted. On the other hand, a new piece of information may be tremendously important to take into account but may be ignored instead. When new evidence or information comes to light, it is imperative to take a step back and look at this information from a broader perspective while asking the question, “how much does knowing this piece of information affect what I am trying to analyze?”. Always question the source and the value of the information and really dive deeper into how this might affect your decision-making.
Balance Inside and Outside Information
Balancing inside and outside information primarily pertains to questioning the value of the source of the information. For example, if a lifelong New York Knicks fan has posted his opinion on a forum regarding the Knicks’ chances of winning a certain game, how much should his opinion be taken into account knowing he is very likely to be rooting for the Knicks to win every single game. If he insists that the Knicks will win, his opinion should definitely be taken with a grain of salt, or two. On the other hand, if he believes that the Knicks will not win, maybe this should be taken with more weight since he has a pre-existing bias towards the Knicks but is still maintaining that the Knicks will probably lose. Additionally, while the opinions of sports “experts” are often relied upon heavily by casual bettors, it would be smart to ask how insightful these experts truly are. Are they providing their opinions simply to try to appear smart by taking the side of teams that everyone knows are likely to win? It would be wise to analyze the breakdown of the arguments presented rather than relying solely on the end opinion or recommendation.
Analyze Failures And Successes With The Same Thoroughness
While it may be easy to cast aside betting losses as simply due to bad luck and betting wins as due to the time and effort put forth in analyzing these games, this would be an unsound approach. Instead, one should analyze failures and successes with the same thoroughness in order to get to the root causes. It is important to dissect each betting loss to find out why you lost as well as each betting win to find out why you won. Was it due to an unlucky bounce at the end of the game or was it the result of something you noticed before the game that actually had a significant impact?