While the majority of sports bettors look for the perfect system for handicapping football games, the truth is there is no such thing. The smart handicapper takes the necessary steps to ensure they will have the best chance to win while also taking in to account there are no guarantees. Here is a look at five important factors to consider when betting on football.
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It seems obvious but the most important factor in any sports betting matchup is the quality of the teams that are involved. The majority of fans tend to focus on the smaller intricacies of the game rather than giving full acknowledgement to the most important factor, which are how talented the two teams on the football field are. The most important starting point should be the talent level of the quarterbacks and from there you can work your way down and evaluate the different positions.
Using win totals we can forecast 2019 Strength of Schedule.
Patriots, Jets & Eagles have the 3 easiest schedules based on current win totals.
Texans, Broncos & Raiders have the 3 hardest schedules.
Full list ▼ You can also filter by team & view home/away strength of opponent. pic.twitter.com/j94gsBQCeg
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) April 1, 2019
Another important factor to consider when betting on football is the style that each team plays and how they match up against one another. This is especially true when it comes to betting point spreads or totals for a given event. If you are trying to predict how many points will be scored by each team you will want to take in to account how the team styles match up against one another and think about how each team will attack the other.
An underrated factor in the outcome of football games is the motivation that each team is playing with. It isn’t uncommon that one team will have more to play for then the other and this is particularly true later on in the season when there are fewer teams contending for playoff positions. Make sure that you consider what is at stake, what happened in the previous games for both teams, their recent schedules and where they are in the standings. Remember that a team coming off a blowout loss is much more likely to be motivated to win than a team coming off a narrow win. The motivation is only relevant based on team talent but in a close matchup it could be an important factor to consider.
The injury reports for each team are available throughout the week leading up to games so there is no excuse for not being aware of injuries and factoring them in to your decision making. The more talented the player, the more significant the injury news is and it should be taken in to consideration. Even the best teams in football can be significantly affected by a couple of key injuries so make sure you take that in to account when betting on football.
Four months after a knee injury and less than a week before the draft, @Blovee_20 is working to regain his explosiveness that led to being a 2017 Heisman finalist at @StanfordFball. pic.twitter.com/eiCAcTNruH
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 19, 2019
Key Stats & Trends
In the week leading up to the games you will see plenty of relevant statistics and trends available but it is on you to break down the numbers and figure out how they should be incorporated in to your predictions. Numbers such as turnover differential, passing yards, yards per attempt, rushing yards, yards per carry and sacks should all be taken in to account along with averages for both the offense and defense. The best handicappers in the world are able to analyze stats and trends in order to get a better idea of what to expect and it’s important that you do the same in order to become a more successful at betting on football.
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