Sports Betting Strategy

Basic Concepts Of Probability & Value In Sports Betting

One of the biggest mistakes that casual sports betting players make is assuming they can make significant profits simply by picking winners. While you can’t make money without picking winners, the most important aspect of building up your profits is the ability to manage your money with concepts of probability and value. For example, not all favorites in baseball have the same MLB odds. Some might be favored by more and some by less, which means losses will cost you differently. Even the best professional handicappers in the world aren’t right 100% of the time but by managing their money properly, they are able to consistently build up their bankrolls. Here is a look at some of the basic concepts of probability and value in sports betting.

Understanding Hit Rate

The term “hit rate” refers to the number of bets you win in relation to the number of bets that you make overall. For example, if you make 50 bets on the MLB odds and you win 25 of them then your hit rate is 50%. It’s important to understand hit rate because it is an important tool when assessing the value of the wagers you make as well as the value of each bet. For example, if your hit rate is 50% then you need to make sure the value of the wagers you make is higher than the amount you are risking. If you are risking more money than you are winning then you will lose money over time. If your hit rate is around 80%, then you can afford to bet on favorites around -120 to -140 because you are winning enough of your wagers to make o for the losses you might incur on juice. However, if you are only winning 50% of your wagers then it is actually impossible for you to make money if you are risking -125 odds on every bet.

Understanding Probability

Probability in sports betting isn’t as straight forward as in other aspects because there are so many different factors involved. You can apply all of the statistics that you want and you might still not be able to predict the outcome of an event based on factors that were either unforeseen or weren’t weighed in to your equation as heavily as you should have done. While the sportsbooks put the odds in their favor, it is possible to overcome their advantage if you are smart. The key is understanding the implied probability of the wagers you make and whether the value is high enough that it makes sense to make those wagers.


The hit rate is important to understand so that you can more accurately assess the probability of making a profit based on the wagers that you make. The odds that the sportsbooks make don’t necessarily accurately reflect the probability of an outcome but rather they reflect possible outcomes and it is on you to understand the potential range of outcomes. In order to make money you need to be able to assess the value of the wagers that you make because there are no guarantees that you will be successful. Probability and value in sports betting are two key factors that every successful sports bettor understands so make sure you buy in and take the time to figure out how to climb to the top.

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