One of the biggest changes in the way that professional handicappers and sportsbooks approach sports betting over the years is the arrival of computer models and the use of predictive analysis. The bookmakers have relied on these models to influence what they think the lines and the odds should be for different games but those models aren’t always without error. Here is a look at how to take advantage of errors in sports betting models.
Choosing The Wrong Models
One of the most obvious ways that the models can encounter errors is that the analysis is made to fit a wrong shape altogether. A triangle can fit in to a square if you try hard to make it fit but that doesn’t mean it is the right fit and the potential is there to lose the shape of the triangle within a square. This is also true when it comes to sports betting models because if the models don’t account for all possible outcomes than they could produce flawed results. The professionals do the best they can to account for all possible outcomes but their models aren’t without potential error and the most obvious mistake they can make is choosing the wrong model for their projections.
Choosing The Wrong Parameters
Another mistake that is easy to make is choosing the wrong parameters with which to build the models. The correct shape is important but if the size of the model doesn’t account for the specific size needed for the model then it would be easy for an effort to occur. When it comes to sports, there are so many different smaller factors that might not be accounted for in computer models and if the parameters don’t account for all possibilities then thee potential for error exists.
The Process Error
Even if the sportsbook chooses the right model and parameters for their models they could run in to an error in the process of filling in all of the necessary information. For example, a superstar player could have a much bigger impact on the outcome of a game than the environment in which it is played so the model has to try to account for exactly how much of a weighted expectation to give to the superstar and how much to place on the environment. This process creates that many more opportunities for an error to exist and there is nothing to fully proof against the potential for errors to happen throughout this process.
The best approach to take in terms of capitalizing on model errors is to have as much knowledge as possible on every single sporting event and put in the necessary time to research the different lines and compare them to where you think they should be. Sportsbooks put a lot of time in to perfecting these systems but there is still plenty of room for error and those paying close enough attention should b able to notice when those errors occur. There is no such thing as a perfect model and by doing your homework you can be prepared for the opportunities that come up and take advantage of the errors that exist in sports betting models.