If you have bet on sports before then you have probably noticed the online ads promoting sports betting tipsters. After all, the tipsters use sportsbooks and other sports news websites for advertisements. While some will preach the ability to give you guaranteed picks at a fair price, the reality is that there really is no such thing as a guaranteed pick. A number of these tipsters go over the top with their advertisements. However, that doesn’t mean you can’t make money by using the best of these tipsters. Here is a closer look at the keys to testing the credibility of a sports betting tipster.
Testing The Likelihood Of Success
One method to test the credibility of a tipster is to evaluate the likelihood that a profit from a series of wagers could have happened by chance when it comes to their picks. The smaller that probability the greater the likelihood that something else like skill might have caused the win. Unfortunately, the only way to actually test the tipster is to know what their picks are, which means spending the money to purchase them. However, some tipsters tweet out their picks and by tracking them you can get a good idea of what to expect from them.
Measuring The Profitability Of The Picks
One important thing to remember when evaluating the credibility of the tipster is that it isn’t just about delivering winning picks. The key is to make a profit off of their picks. Therefore, if they are hitting at around 55-percent but they are only providing their followers with heavy favorites then there is a good chance they will not deliver a profit since those bets are costing more money than they are making. The line movements are important to consider as well. For example, if the tipster tells you that he was able to lock in an underdog at +220 but the best price you find for that team online is +180 then there is an obvious disparity. This could happen from time to time based on line movements. However, if it is happening on a consistent basis then it might be because the tipster isn’t credible. He could be manipulating the prices in order to make it seem like his picks are that much more profitable than they actually are. Make sure you don’t fall for this trick when it comes to evaluating the credibility of tipsters.
Don’t Overlook Randomness
Another important factor to consider is overall randomness. While a tipster could be responsible for a series of good picks, you want to consider his overall history in order to evaluate how good that person is. For example, if they publish news about a run of three straight winning wagers it might make them seem like they are extremely talented at picking winners. However, if you were to find out that they had two losses on either side of that win streak and technically won just three of seven wagers on a given stretch, then that win streak won’t look nearly as impressive. Randomness could make a tipster seem better than they really are. If their numbers seem too good to be true, then they just might be exactly that.