Although following where the sharp money goes tends to be a sound practice, there are some common pitfalls that casual bettors may come across when trying to do this. The following section will highlight some of the more common mistakes that should be avoided when following sharp money.
Single Out Other Factors Causing Line Movements
Although line movements may occur due to an imbalance of wagered amounts on both sides of a game, this is not the only reason for line movements. More often than not, injuries are also a common reason for subtle or drastic line movements. Drastic line movements occur when key players, especially a team’s star or superstar, is injured and is not expected to play in the game at hand. As a result, sportsbooks, upon taking note of this information, will try and get ahead of the action by moving the lines accordingly. It is also important to be aware that sportsbooks may receive information regarding player injuries before this information becomes available to the public. Even though a star player may currently be listed as questionable, the sportsbooks may already know that he will be ruled out for the game and have since adjusted the lines.
Avoid Forcing Bets
When following sharp money, it is essential to keep in mind that you do not have to place a wager on every single game. At the end of the day, the money you lose is ultimately your own money (in the majority of cases). As a result, you should only bet on games where you feel comfortable or when you perceive that value exists. If you happen to stumble upon a reverse line movement with a 55%–45% split, this is not nearly as good as one with a 75%–25% split.
Fading The Public Is Not A Must
When following where the sharp money is going, this money will be against the public more often than not. However, is would not be a wise strategy to always fade the public. Sometimes, sharp bettors and the pubic (casual bettors) may end up being on the same side. For an individual who is simply blindly fading the public, he will be inclined to fade the public at every opportunity, even when sharp bettors are taking the same side as the public. This carelessness and inattention to detail could end up costing you a lot of money in the long-run if this is the approach that you are taking when following sharp money.
Trust The Process
Following where the sharp money is going does not constitute a foolproof system where you will be winning all of your bets and profiting like no tomorrow. On the contrary, you will see your fair share of wins and losses. However, the important thing to keep in mind is that you only need to win 55% of your bets to end up with a generous profit. Anything more than 58% to 60% and you will be building up your bankroll in no time. Although it may be easy to become discouraged following the sharp money after you have lost a couple of bets in a row, you must keep in mind that this strategy works best in the long-run. Trust what the line movements are indicating and allow sharp bettors to help you make the decision on which side to bet on.