There are plenty of reasons why the professional handicappers make a lot more money betting on the NFL than the casual fans will. The majority of their ability comes from their awareness of how sports betting works and why it makes sense to go against the grain. Here is a look at two important NFL tips that the sharps don’t want you to know about.
Follow The Public Money
One of the most important things to do when betting on the NFL is to follow where the public money is going. The sportsbooks design their spreads in order to account for where the public money is going in an effort to make sure there is as close to an even split on both sides of any given wager as possible. You want to keep an eye on where the public money is going in order to understand how the lines could move. For example, if the Baltimore Ravens are visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Ravens are initially listed at+1.5 but then the line moves to Baltimore +2.5 then that is a sign that the public money is on Pittsburgh. The move from 1.5 to 2.5 isn’t significant enough to ignore that the public is on the Steelers but you want to keep an eye out for key numbers. If the line moves to Baltimore +3.0, then that is probably good value for the Ravens since you get them to cover a field goal based in large part due to the fact that the betting public is on the Steelers. By understanding how the public money can move the lines you can get a good idea of why the lines are moving the way they are and how to adjust your wagers to take advantage.
Following The Sharp Money And Reverse Moves
If you are keeping a close eye on where the public money is going than it is that much easier to figure out where the sharp money is and how it can trigger a reverse move. For example, if we use the same scenario that we used above then we can figure out that the public money has moved the line to Baltimore +3 versus Pittsburgh. Now, if a large amount of sharp money comes in on the Ravens then we could suddenly see the line shift back to the Ravens +2.5 or even Baltimore +1.5. This is usually a sign that the smart money is on the Ravens and those plays moved the line back in the opposite direction. This is usually a good indication that it is time to bet on Baltimore if you can still find them at +3 at any given sportsbook and it might still be worth betting the Ravens at +2.5. The sharp bettors will usually trigger strong reverse moves so make sure you are paying close attention and making sure you follow the changes in order to take advantage and end up on the right side of NFL wagers.