This article is intended for bettors who have at least an elementary knowledge of betting on parlays and would like to dive into slightly more advanced topics and strategies to succeed. To introduce, the best and most profitable parlay strategy is known as a correlated parlay, which we will explore below. Additionally, another way to incorporate parlays into your strategy is to bet into weak numbers and combine them with stronger spreads to increase your exposure on the weak numbers. The goal is that the edge you gain on the weak numbers will more then compensate for the house edge on parlays.
Correlated parlays involve parlaying different bets related to the same event. As the name of this strategy suggests, different betting options on the same event may be correlated depending on the outcome of the game. However, very few sportsbooks actually allow you to parlay bets in this way – if you’re able to find a sportsbook that allows for this, be sure to take advantage. Here’s an illustration of how correlated bets work.
Let’s assume that the Golden State Warriors are playing the Sacramento Kings at home and opened as 17-point favorites. Later on, an announcement is made indicating that the Kings are planning to rest most of their starters, pushing the line up to 23.0 points. Additionally, the over/under total for the game is relatively low, at 210.0 points, as the Warriors are expected to do a lot of the scoring. If you believe that the game will go over 210.0 points, it might be a good idea to include this bet in your parlay. Additionally, if the game does indeed go over 210.0 points, the Warriors will likely blow out the Kings in a big way as well, and it might be prudent to take the Warriors at -23.0 on the parlay as well. Since these two events are likely correlated (e.g. if the game total goes over, the favorite will likely cover), you’ll be able to use this to your advantage if you’re able to spot this correlation and bet with a sportsbook that allows this strategy.
Increase Exposure To Weak Numbers
The second strategy for betting parlays is to find a line that is very weak and pair this weak line with another bet or two on the same parlay card to increase your potential payout. For example, if the market consensus on the Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics matchup is that the Celtics should be three-point favorites, but some sportsbooks are receiving a lot of action on the Celtics, pushing the line for the Raptors up to +5.0. This is a great opportunity to take advantage of a mispriced line and bet a sizeable amount. However, if you don’t have as much funds to work with, a good way to leverage this opportunity to take the Raptors at +5.0 is to pair this bet with another bet – your edge on the Raptors at +5.0 should more than compensate for the house edge normally inherent in parlays.
Difference Between Online And Physical Sportsbooks
When you place a bet at a physical sportsbook, such as the ones in Las Vegas, once the bet is printed out for you, the bet stands no matter what. Because of this, Las Vegas sportsbooks must be careful to avoid posting a mistaken line – this could be a recipe for disaster. On the other hand, online sportsbooks will usually revoke your bet if you’ve placed a bet on an event where the online sportsbook made a mistake in posting its lines.