Sports Betting Strategy

Sports Betting: Advanced Teaser Strategy

The teaser bet is one of the most popular types of wagers when it comes to betting on football and basketball since players can feel more secure getting points on their wagers in exchange for a slightly lower payday. While the general strategy behind teaser bets is fairly straightforward the more advanced teaser strategies can really make a difference helping to maximize your profit potential. Here is a look at what you need to know about advanced teaser strategy.

Finding Value

In theory, the best way to calculate whether or not a teaser has more value in a point spread or in a tease is to create a push chart. For example, if the point spread is -7.5 and you are trying to decide if it makes more sense to bet the spread or tease it six points then you could break down the numbers based on the possible outcomes. If the favorite wins by eight points or more then you would win the bet on a simple point spread. However, if the favorite wins by 7, 6, 5, 4, 3 or 2 then you would lose. Therefore, it definitely makes sense to take the six-point teaser in this spot if you really want to increase your odds of winning the wager. By creating a table in which you could see the outcomes at a glance it will be that much easier to find values.

The Tables

One table you might want to consider for the NFL advanced teasers is the push chart that we have as an example below. A quick glance at this push chart reveals where teams landed within the related margins of victory based on the -4 to -9 point spreads.

7 points: 6.0%
6 points: 3.1%
5 points: 2.2%
4 points: 2.6%
3 points: 9.7%
2 points: 2.1%

If we add these numbers together the team improves their win rate by 25.7%. Considering you are already interested in betting at -7.5 you are likely giving it a greater than 50% chance of winning. Therefore, if the number drops to -1.5 based on the six-point teaser then that six points should represent around a 25% increase in your chances of winning. Therefore, by applying the six-point teaser to a spread that covers two key numbers you are essentially improving your odds of winning from 50% to 75%.

Outlook

The key to successfully using teaser bets is to make sure you are maximizing your values and finding the best possible situations in which these numbers apply. The teaser bet obviously enhances your chances of winning a wager but the key is finding the best value with key numbers. If you find a situation where you can have three teams cross the key numbers of seven and three then you will significantly increase your chances of winning the teaser wager and the value is good enough to jump all-in for the opportunity to capitalize and make a substantial profit.

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