While a myth is defined as something that’s widely held but often false, we’ll take a look at some NBA betting myths that are indeed true in this article. The NBA is relatively more difficult to bet on compared to other professional sports due to the system’s use of straight mathematics. In addition, there are many rules in place to ensure the presence of equality, which is why few systems can succeed with the exception of pure, unfiltered statistical analysis. However, it’s important to separate the false myths from the ones that are actually true and make sense. We’ll take at the betting myths that are true in this article.
Bet Against Low-Ranking Teams
Based on historical statistical analysis, evidence has pointed us to the fact that betting against lower ranked teams near the end of the regular season tend to deliver profits, for the most part. While some low-ranking teams may still give it their all near the end of the regular season just to save some pride and face, this usually doesn’t amount to much. However, what happens on most occasions is that low-ranking teams who have already been eliminated from the playoff picture will play their fringe rotation players or inexperienced rookies with hopes of diving further down the standings, which would allow the team to receive better chances of landing a top pick in the following NBA rookie draft. With a combination of lowered motivation, advantages of losing in preparation for the NBA draft, and increased playing time of inferior players, betting against low-ranking teams usually works out quite well for the bettor.
Ignore Offenses and Defenses
Many novice bettors tend to place too much emphasis on a team’s offensive and defensive strength. While this is a good starting point, these indicators must be viewed in comparison to the opposing team’s offensive and defensive capabilities. It’s the interaction of these variables between the team teams in the matchup that matters as opposed to the individual strength of each team’s offense and defense. If a team is much better offensively than defensively and the opposing team is known to be a lockdown defensive team, the opposing team may have an easier time since they have a much better chance of nullifying their opponents’ offensive strengths, should the matchup play out in their favor. When analyzing NBA matchups, this must always be done in a relative manner. For example, how strong is this team’s offense when matched up against this opposing team in comparison to another opposing team? Don’t just look at a matchup from the perspective of each team but rather, look at how each team matches up relative to their opponent.
Be Wary Of The Preseason
Preseason betting in the NBA is arguably more difficult than the regular season or the playoffs. With so many factors already affecting the regular season and playoff games, the preseason brings additional elements in. To start, star players usually play only a limited proportion of their regular minutes or don’t play at all, which makes forecasting for this extremely difficult. Rotations and mix of the five players on the court are also more prone to experimentation and randomness. The motivations of players and teams will also vary significantly, and it’s tough to get a feel for how much this particular player or team wants to win the game. With all these factors in play, preseason betting is quite uneasy, which makes it all the more important to remain cautious and wary when placing NBA preseason bets of any type.