Sports Betting Strategy

Sports Betting: What Line Moves Can Tell Us

There is a very interesting thing that happens when the sportsbooks release their initial lines. Almost immediately, the public responds with their wagers that reveal which side of the matchups they are on. The sportsbooks will react by shifting their lines to account for the wagers they take in. While these line shifts can immediately reveal to us which side of the matchups the public money is on, they don’t necessarily tell us where the closing odds will end up. Here is a look at what sports betting line moves can tell us.

Understanding Line Movements

It is important to understand how many times the lines for a sports betting event can shift and why they move. While the initial line adjustments could be in response to the public money, that isn’t the only possible reason. In some cases, a large amount of money from a sharp bettor could shift the lines early on. The goal for the smart bettor is to keep track of the lines and figure out when the best chance to make a wager is. When it comes to betting on favorites, there is a good chance that the initial line could be the best line that becomes available to you. When it comes to betting on underdogs, it usually makes sense to wait a little longer before you place your bet.

Timing Is Key

The reality is that most bettors prefer to wager on the favorites. Therefore, it makes sense that you want to jump on the favorites early in order to get the best available line. While it makes sense to jump on early lines if you want to pick the favorite, the smart thing to do for betting underdogs is to wait. The more people bet on the favorite the more the line can move in favor of those that want to bet the underdog. Timing is important when trying to figure out when to place a wager. Conventional wisdom calls for betting favorites early and for waiting on underdogs, but at the end of the day you need to be able to deal with every situation individually. Understanding line movements is important, and timing is key.

Tracking The Smart Money

It’s important to understand the difference between a public line movement and a smart money line movement. If a line moves from -3.0 to -3.5 over a 24-hour span, then the sportsbook is likely adjusting the number based on the public wagers. However, if the line moves from -3.0 to -5.0 then that is likely because the smart money pushed the sportsbooks to make a significant change immediately. In situations when the smart money shifts the line dramatically, it might still make sense to bet on the favorite since the sharps are definitely on that side. The sports betting line movement can really reveal a lot about where the money is. By tracking those movements, you can really improve your chances of building up your profits.

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