I’m sure you’ve all come across individuals proclaiming to be one of the best in the sports betting business and are offering you the chance to profit alongside them by purchasing their picks. These individuals often include grandiose visions and inflate performance of their sports betting systems. While there are definitely some sports betting systems that actually work, from my experience, this number is extremely low – probably somewhere around 10% of all sports betting systems available. Let’s examine why most sports betting systems don’t work.
In reality, many individuals offering their picks from their sports betting systems don’t actually have one in place but instead, simply speculate on which team(s) they think will be on the winning side or gleam information from other people are thinking about matchups and will jump on the bandwagon based on their picks. While these individuals may be able to win more bets than they’ve lost, this strategy is inherently flawed and will catch up to them at some point. Additionally, why would you ever want to tail someone who you know is speculating or is simply taking picks off others?
While some individuals may have sports betting systems, the results of these systems are often inflated. The only realistic way to accurately assess the picks offered by individuals is if they post their bets somewhere online where it’s timestamped in order to guarantee that the bet was made before the start of the game. However, if someone compiles their win-loss record in a simple Excel spreadsheet, there’s really no way to verify the accuracy and validity of this information. All you’re left with is your gut feeling on the matter. If you’re trying to induce casual bettors to pay you in order to gain access to your picks, you’ll be at least somewhat motivated to overstate your winning percentage and profits.
While you might get lucky and come across an individual offering free picks, with these picks actually helping you gain some additional profits, sports betting systems are simply that – they offer picks. However, one of the most important, if not the most important aspect of sports betting is one’s ability to manage his bankroll. Most novice bettors are not aware of this intricate aspect of sports betting. Their belief is that as long as I’m able to maintain a superior winning percentage, I’ll be fine regardless. This is far from the truth. Take an example where five free picks were offered, with the first four winning and the last one losing. If an individual with no sense of bankroll management were to place bets, and suppose he places $100 on the first game and wins, he may feel more confident and bet $200 the next game. So on and so forth, he’ll have bet $500 and $1,000. However, on the fifth game, this individual bets $2,000 and loses. In essence, this highlights the importance of bankroll management.
Difficult to Beat Oddsmakers
As good or as profitable as one’s sports betting system is, it’s simply too difficult to beat the oddsmakers. By this, I mean being more accurate than oddsmakers. If your sports betting system is more accurate than oddsmakers, you’ll profit – period. However, this is much easier said than done, especially because oddsmakers employ a host of individuals to work for them and have the most up-to-date technology and information. When combined with intricate models and algorithms, the result produces lines that are very accurate.