The 2017 CFL regular season officially kicks off on June 22nd and concludes on November 4th, with the playoffs beginning on November 12th. Although the CFL betting market pales in comparison to other major U.S. sports leagues, there may be a lot of value offered in a relatively underrepresented market. Here are some strategies on how to effectively bet on the CFL.
Fade Strong Teams
In the CFL and major sports leagues in general, extremely strong teams have typically been overvalued due to the public’s affection and backing. Most uneducated bettors tend to regularly back elite teams, which may provide a compelling option to fade strong teams. From the past ten years of data (2006-2015), when a team with a winning percentage under .600 is matched up against a team with a winning percentage of .600 or higher, the inferior team (the underdog) has done a respectable 191-159 or a .546 winning percentage against the spread. This may be partly due to the fact that when favourites receive a majority of wagers against the spread, it tends to push up the spread even higher, requiring the favoured team to win by even higher of a margin.
Go Against The Public
In sports betting in general, it is often a good strategy to bet against the public. Going against the public is one of the simplest methods of betting but also one of the most effective. Studies have concluded a direct correlation between the volume of bets placed on each game and the value of going against the public for those games. As previously mentioned, when a team that is already the favourite receives a majority of bets against the spread, the spread is adjusted and pushed upwards, which means that the favourite must win by more points in order to cover against the spread.
Betting The Under With High Game Totals
When a matchup’s over/under game total is set relatively high, it may be a good strategy to bet the under. Similar to the public’s affection for betting on favourites against the spread, the public has a similar taste to betting the overs on game totals. When the public pours bets into the over for a game total, it tends to push the game total upwards, making it more difficult for the over to cover while making it easier for the game to go under the total.
Buy Low After Losses
Sportsbooks are well aware of typical human tendencies and tend to exploit these perceived advantages. When a team comes off a blowout loss or a demoralizing loss when leading late in the game, the public is usually unwilling to back these teams. Additionally, if a team is mired in the midst of a losing streak, the public will usually bet on the team to continue its losing streak. If you take the path less travelled and are able to look away from your unpopular viewpoint, this strategy may prove to be profitable. The psychology behind taking teams to win after losing several games or are stuck in a losing streak may be due to the fact that these teams may simply “try harder”. No professional sports teams want to be embarrassed or lose multiple games consecutively. As a result, these teams may have more of an incentive to win their next game in order to quiet the media or prove a point to other teams that they’re still threats.