Sports Betting Strategy

The Hunt For Value In Sports Betting

When it comes to sports betting, it’s not enough to place a bet on a team simply because you believe they will win. It’s just as important, if not more important, to find value in a bet. Lines set by oddsmakers represent their perceived likelihood of the event happening. A payout of -150 or 1.67 indicates that oddsmakers believe the event will occur 60% of the time. If you believe that the event will occur more than 60% of the time, then there’s value in this bet. If not, then there’s no value. The opportunity for value exists when we’re able to more accurately predict the outcome of an event compared to oddsmakers since the probability of sports events do not have a fixed probability, unlike casino games such as roulette. The hunt for value is essentially looking for odds that are higher than you’d expect and capitalizing on this opportunity. Here are some tips when hunting for value.

Low Odds Have Value

Many people hold the belief that value only exists when the odds are high, which typically means higher than a 1:1 payout or 2.00. However, you can also find value in lower odds. Value in a bet is dependent on whether the payout is high or low. At a payout of 2.50, the implied odds are 40% but if you believe that the odds should be 42%, there’s value in this bet. Moreover, at a payout of 1.20, the implied odds are 83% but if you believe that the odds should be 99%, there’s even more value in this bet. Don’t be fooled into thinking that value only exists when the payout is high. If you live by this, you’ll miss out on plenty of opportunities.

Bigger Payouts Don’t Necessarily Translate Into More Value

At first glance, an event that has a 40.00 payout may seem like value will most definitely exist. The implied odds of this are 2.5%. However, if you think that the odds should be less than 1%, putting money on this bet would make no sense whatsoever – value simply doesn’t exist. Yes, you might win the bet, but this would be mostly attributed to luck. By taking bets without any value, you’ll be certain to lose more money than you win over the long-run. Contain your excitement when you come across huge payouts – they’re priced that way for a reason.

Tread Carefully With Parlays

While sportsbooks love to take parlay bets, this does not necessarily mean that there’s never any value in parlays. Although adding a game to a parlay decreases the chances of the parlay winning, this does not mean that you’ll never be able to obtain value from parlays. However, one thing is for sure – each individual event on the parlay bet must have value in order for the parlay to have value. Additionally, each event on the parlay should also consist of a decent amount of value rather than just marginal and insignificant value.

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