Sports Betting Strategy

Why It Makes Sense To Bet Against Public Favorites

Everybody is looking for an edge when it comes to making a substantial profit by betting on the NFL. It could be as simple as betting against the public favorites on a consistent basis. The numbers show that betting against public factors makes a lot of sense based on data calculated over the last decade. Here is a look at why it makes sense to bet against public favorites as an NFL betting strategy.

The Numbers

Based on the numbers recorded over a decade span, NFL underdogs covered the spread 50.3-percent of the time. The fact that it is so close to an even split its absolutely remarkable and it’s important to remember that the books have the edge when so much money is coming in on the favorites. The numbers stood out even more in games when one team received 20-percent or fewer of spread bets, indicating a matchup which the betting public feels is lopsided. In those situations, the underdogs covered the spread a remarkable 57.1-percent of the time. By dividing the number of instances in which a team received 20-percent or fewer of spread bets over the number of seasons we find that these types of games happen around 18 times per season. By betting against the public in these circumstances you can certainly make a substantial profit.

How To Use The Information

It’s important to remember that the sportsbooks are doing the best they can to split the number of bets on both sides down the middle in order to cover their own pockets and make sure they make money. Therefore, if there is a substantial favorite that they know will receive the majority of the public backing it only makes sense that they would want to raise the spread in order to try to prevent everybody from being on that same side. As a result, there is usually some value betting on the underdog at a bigger number than they probably should be just based on the idea that they want to convince bettors to take them rather than piling on the favorite. The public bettors tend to put their money on the big favorites regardless of how high the line and the numbers show that in extreme situations the opportunity is there to really fade the favorites hard.


Anybody looking for an edge when betting on the NFL can use this system to their advantage. The fact that the underdog covers 57-percent of the time in which they receive 20-percent of the public backing means that we can trust that number as providing a strong enough split to use it in our favor. There aren’t many NFL systems that provide that type of a split so you will want to use it to your advantage. Betting against the public usually makes sense when it comes to the NFL but that approach tends to be even more effective when that much greater percentage of people are betting on a favorite.

Back to top button